"Will" I need it? Probably not. But I "probably" won't need my truck's spare tire, or my fire extinguisher today either. Doesn't mean I'm going to throw them in the trash.
All I can say is that in the training I participate in, I've sometimes used more ammo than I could believe. Using M4 carbines and occasionally my own CAR-15, with Simunition uppers installed, playing "bad guy" in training exercises for a facility that trains all kinds of people. We also carry simunition-converted pistols; 1911's, Glocks, and Berettas.
FWIW, don't believe the ads that simunition is "like paintball". It's a plastic 9mm bullet @ 420fps. It just HURTS. I once caught a 7-round burst full-auto at about 8 feet. I couldn't have gotten up if I'd wanted to. (And I didn't want to; I just wanted to curl up into a ball & disappear.)
At this facility, I've "fought" operators from all kinds of agencies; from local swat units to military (never met an Air Force pilot-retrieval "operator" that was very good at this), to NNSA (National Nuclear Security Agency) teams. Most people have never heard of this agency, but when the director signs on in the morning, the nuclear power under his control makes him the fourth largest superpower in the world. These guys I've trained with have one mission: to re-take an American nuclear plant that's been taken over by "whoever". And they don't play like police. Standard procedure on engagement is a burst to the torso, a burst to the head, and THEN they handcuff your hands behind your back. (So you can't push a button if you're somehow still alive) They don't warn, and they don't let you surrender. They hunt and kill you. They have the best equipment the government can afford; and they ALL look like they eat wasp nests for breakfast and can bench-press a rabid bengal tiger. Nasty, scary people.
In rural Arkansas LE like I am, it's easy to get a "Billy Bad-ass" mindset; I'm 6'3", 245 pounds, shoot master qualifications on the pistol range, and my normal nightly workout is with 40-pound iron dumbells. Yet these guys honest-to-God make me feel like a sheep among the wolves. They're just tough bastards.
Point is, in these training exercises, I've more than once been on my fourth rifle magazine in one fight, depending on the scenario and how much shooting-&-maneuvering is going on. That's 66-88 rounds (22-round rifle mags, go figure) in ONE engagement. There's been times I've been 'killed' before needing to swap mags; and there's been twice that I've actually run out of ammo before all was over, and I carry five rifle mags and at least two pistol mags. Wasteful, yes. "A lot of missing", yes. But also a lot of "keeping them off me". (We 'bad guys' are often seriously outnumbered; seems hard to find volunteers to get shot at. Can't imagine why.) And when you're facing superior numbers with automatic weapons, and they know roughly where you are (and being govt agencies, they most always have the best night-vision gear, etc), "keeping them off you" means shooting and moving; period.
EVERY time I've tried to stay static against a larger or better-equipped group, I've died. EVERY time; and I know the buildings, cover, etc, better than these guys in training do, since I've been going there for years. So if staying static always equals death (which it has so far), the only chance for life is to NOT be static. That means moving, and when moving with people trying to shoot you, shooting back at them (even if inaccurately) can be very helpful in escaping. They don't want to get shot anymore than I do, and they are completely aware that I do know the facility better than they do. So their natural tendency is to duck when fire's incoming; even if it's largely inaccurate incoming fire, it's still more unnerving than NO incoming fire.
My point is this: I've rarely needed a "lot" of ammo, but it HAS happened. So when it's for real, I do carry more than I think I'll need. No way anyone can change my mind about that.
And fwiw, I've NEVER survived against the NNSA teams; no matter what new tactic I've tried. When it's them, my goal anymore is to "survive longer" than I have before against them, which is now 18 minutes.
Scary, horrid people.
Traps, nets, snares, trotlines are far more efficient for taking flesh food than guns are, and half of your diet has to be of plant origin, anyway, or you get sick. So you will only be taking maybe 100 lbs of meat per year, per person, with a gun. Most of that will be livestock or dogs, anyway. So a .22lr suffices. You aint Audie Murphy, and Audie was the first to admit that only LUCK saved him (many times) So, no, you will NOT be getting in lots of fights, where you fire lots of rounds, and survive it, except by LUCK. If you go at it right, by the time you fire even 50 rds of suppressed .22lr's, you will be able to "recover" dozens of guns and hundreds of rounds of ammo. Much of that ammo will be .22lr, and a fair amount of it will be 223. So the fact is, if yoiu are any good at all, you wont need a lot of ammo, to start with. If you AINT any good, you ALSO won''t need much ammo, cause you'll be DEAD before you could fire much of it.
