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I said that anything that increases the amount of time you are exposed to fire, as in ZIG-ZAG vs running all out form cover to cover, increases the liklihood of getting shot.

The premise (which I don't agree with, btw) is that you have a 50% chance of hitting a mover that is trying to kill you.

For arguments sake, let suppose I can only fire 1 round a second. (way slow, but it makes the discussion something that everyone should be able to follow)

If you run all out, it takes you two seconds to go from your current cover to the next cover. If you do the shimmy shimmy koko pop, it takes an additional second.

Now, if the odds of hitting a mover are truly random (50%), then what the mover is doing has no effect on the probability of a hit,

So, if it takes two seconds for you to get to cover, I will get two shots at you, and if it takes three, then I will get three shots.

let's start with the two shot scenario:

The odds of any shot hitting you are 50%. The outcome of the first shot does not change or influence the outcome of the second.

the following are the possible outcomes of two shots fired:

Miss, Miss

Miss, Hit

Hit, Miss

Hit, Hit

there are 3 instances out of the four possible outcomes, or a 75% chance you will get hit at least once.

a single outcome out of the four, or a 25% chance that you will not get hit at all.

a single outcome out of the four, or a25% chance that you will be hit twice. (this outcome was included in the 75%, because we said at least once.)

Nothing has changed the 50% probability of any one shot hitting you.

now, lets look at all the possible outcomes for three shots fired:

Miss, Miss, Miss

Miss, Miss, Hit

Miss, Hit, Miss

Miss, Hit, Hit

Hit, Miss, Miss

Hit, Miss, Hit

Hit, Hit, Miss

Hit, Hit, Hit

Again, there is only a single outcome, out of the 8 possible where you do not get hit. Your odds of not getting hit have dropped from 1 in 4 to one in 8. (from 25% down to 12.5%)

the odds of you getting hit at least once have now risen from 75% to 87.5%

Again, the outcome of any one shot had zero influence on the outcome of any other.

This is very simple probability.

Now, having said this, I don't agree with the premise that hits on movers are pure luck - as anyone who has actually done so in the field knows.

If it were truly random, and if all truly random events were 50-50 (well the whole mathemtatics and science of probability theory would be a waste of time, and random sampling and failure analysis would be a waste as well), then the direction the gun was pointed would not matter.

But we know that skill, and aiming the weapon do matter, so the outcome is not random.

:devil: