Hard Rock said:
if it doesn't get renewed in the next 7 days, it's done...
Mike
And that, my friends, is the precise answer to the question. It's over. No way on earth that it will be renewed. Why? Because it will never come up in the House. Why again? Because Bush set it up that way!
Here's an excerpt from an article that ran in the
Washington Times only a few days ago:
"The House leaders have always been clear: The votes are not there in the House to extend the ban," Mr. DeLay [House Majority Leader] said last week. House Minority Whip Steny H. Hoyer, Maryland Democrat, said he is not sure the ban would pass the House, but said there was no chance of it reaching the floor."
See the "always been clear"? That suggests that this thing has been DOA in the house for a long time! Why would it have been dead for a long time? Because the the leader of the Republican Party - George W. Bush - wanted it that way, and he set it up that way a long time ago. I have been saying this for years; I wish the old Liberty Front threads were still around so I could prove it, but Hard Rock and GB will doubtless remember.
Here it is again: The Democrats are scared crapless to go to the mat on this because just about every democrat who voted for it got voted out of office the next time around. The stalwarts like Schumer and Feinstein, yes, but not the mainstream Democrats in Congress. Now, some folks have chided Bush for saying he'd renew, but again, as I've said for years, I have had no doubt that he
already had it worked out with the House leadership to make damn sure that it was DOA there. That freed him up to say he would sign an extension without ever actually having to do it.
Think about it - it's brilliant: by saying he would sign it, he avoids pissing off the soccer moms. However, by setting it up so that he does not actually have to SIGN it keeps the gunny element in his base intact. He looks out for the rights of gun owners by setting this up, and he still keeps his base of support! Perfect! Unlike a ton of folks I've talked to who were angry that Bush said he'd sign a renewal, I did not see that as a particular problem because I felt very strongly that he had set things up this way to maximize the number of votes he'd get. By making sure the renewal was DOA in the House, he DID stand up for the rights of gun owners.
Ask yourself this: would gun owners have been better served by Bush expressly saying he would not renew, and then taking the loss in votes he would suffer b/c of the soccer moms? I don't think so. I think he took care of us a long time ago, and he took care of himself in the process, and that my friends is a HELL of alot better than having the likes of Kerry in the White House.
Rant off.