This thread in shotgun forum is becoming a discussion on probability. As the discussion relates to hitting movers, it might be worth looking at it.
Now, the original discussion centers on one persons belief that you can not do better than 50-50 when it comes to hitting movers.
I pointed out the fact that 50-50 odds would favor the shooter. (see the thread for details)
If nothing else, it's been fun giving a math lesson. But you might want to look in and join the discussion - if you have something to add, or can find any mistakes in my math...
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