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uber, disney, Ford, GM stocks

511 views 5 replies 3 participants last post by  John in AR 
#1 ·
have fallen by 35-55% in the past 3 weeks. We'd better come up with a treatment and open things up again within 2-3 months, or it's going to be shtf, for sure.
 
#2 ·
uber, disney, Ford, GM stocks have fallen by 35-55% in the past 3 weeks. We'd better come up with a treatment and open things up again within 2-3 months, or it's going to be shtf, for sure.
Nothing was done to re-open things in 2-3 months.

It’s now been 25 months, and still no shtf. Bad economic times, sure, but you always define ‘shtf’ as a full-collapse apocalypse with 90% of people dead within a year. It’s been more than two years.

So no, no shtf.

My point simply being, making dogmatic prognostications as "for sure" gonna happen, is almost ALWAYS a bad idea; as this one demonstrably was.
 
#3 ·
(And in the “by the way” category, of the handful of cherry-picked stocks you list to bolster your apocalyptic prediction, the only one down at all is Uber, and it’s down a measley 5.5%.)

Disney (even with their self-destructive “woke” crap finally coming home to roost) is still up 16.8% since your prediction

General Motors is up 83.9%

Ford is up 198%


SHTF apocalypse indeed…

(See why headline-based dogmatic predictions are a bad idea?)
 
#4 ·
I just see a slow melt down happening in various sectors of businesses, society and government.
The Roman Empire didn't decline overnight.
There will be time and opportunity to make adjustments for people with their wits about them.
I've said it before. I've had family, who now are passed from age/natural causes that survived 2 real "Red Dawn" scenarios in the last century. The last was the worst, the invasion of Poland by both Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia. Just saying that ife goes on.
 
#6 ·
Interesting afterthought – with as bad as things are, what would be the net result if you had all your investments in these four stocks? If a person had put everything they had, evenly spread, across just these four things that (for whatever reason) were taken as foretellers of the end of the world – what would that person have today…?

To keep things simple, let’s stick with easy-to-use numbers. Say you had a hundred thousand dollars, and you put $25,000 into each of these four (doom-predicting) stocks.

Your Uber stock is now worth $20,600
Your Disney stock is now worth $23,900
Your Ford stock is now worth $67,250
Your GM stock is now worth $36,750
Your total holdings now equal $148,500

That’s a 48.5% net GAIN over 2½ years, from investing in just the stocks that were presented as somehow portending the collapse of society. Weird.

Broken out into annual terms, that equals a positive return of more than 17%. Not a bad outcome imo.

But maybe that’s still a losing proposition compared to buying & sitting on gold for the same time frame. Maybe…? Today, gold is $1710. When this thread was started, it was $1728. So a price drop of 1%; meaning that not only did gold fail to keep pace with other investments, it didn’t even keep up with inflation. It’s not a huge loss, but losing 1% is definitely a huge opportunity-cost compared to GAINING a positive 48.5%. And again, that 1% loss also fails to take into account the additional losses from inflation over that same time frame.

I know I harp on the gold vs. market thing a lot, but for a long time I used to be one of those people who believed that gold was a good & productive investment. Only looking at the actual numbers showed me how wrong I was about that. If a person wants to have some as a form of insurance, that may sometimes make sense; as long as they remember that insurance is something you PAY for.
 
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